Mayday & rescue in Rosario Straights

[Capn Bob]

Following up on what sjisailor said about wave height, the link below provides more detail.

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/WaveHei...ht is the vertical,above the still-water line.

Thanks. That wave height document is very useful

 

[JDCAVE]

Following up on what sjisailor said about wave height, the link below provides more detail.

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/WaveHei...ht is the vertical,above the still-water line.

Interesting! Its here! Finally! Bayesian wave height predictions. It’s that kind of output that is highly informative. And it can be provided for almost any weather parameter: wind, wave height. It provides measures of uncertainty the forecast model. The wave height distribution, is likely Beta Binomial, which is a commonly assumed distribution in Bayesian methods.

At the last Vancouver boat show, I spent some time talking to the weather forecasters (Environment Canada) about their modelling. It seems they are starting to move towards more probabilistic methods. For example winds 10-20 knots used to mean a point estimate of 15 knots, +/- 5 knots. I suggested I was very interested in what the probability (from the model) of wind speeds that might exceed some number. I also said I was interested in how the uncertainty in the forecast might vary from day-to-day, in other words “how certain are you in your forecast today, as compared to yesterday.”

Jim