As much as this topic has been exhausted, I thought I would throw more gas on the fire.
I am reviewing sectors, sector funds, stocks, etc. tonight. In the broad market, what is working and what isn't. What comes to mind is some of the undercurrent themes in this thread. So I thought I'd share.
SAFE returns as opposed to MAX returns is one underlying theme in a number of posts. The point I want to make is, what may SEEM safe may not be.
The example I want to make is bonds vs. bond funds. Someone, perhaps B&B but I'm not going to try to look it up, said to shy away from bond funds. I held back from agreeing at the time, just to not clog things up.
IF you buy a bond, or bank CD, what you get is what you sign up for. A yield of X% for Y Period. Hold to maturity, and all things equal you get your money back at the end and earn whatever rate you sign up for.
IF you buy a bond fund, that isn't the case. Bond prices and market value goes up as yields go down, and vice versa. A fund holds a basket of bonds. As a fund investor you have a share of the basket. Every day your share is marked to market. Your fund has no maturity, so if rates go up and stay up you have a permanent capital loss.
At the moment bond yields are spiking up hard, and market values of bonds are tumbling. This is causing significant upset in the high PE tech world causing such stocks to get hit pretty hard.
So you think you have diversified by buying a bond FUND? Think again, because both your bond fund and your tech stocks are going down together.
On the other hand, as techs tumble that cash is going into safety (not bonds). Among the groups being bought are utilities. Yields better than bonds, and deemed (at the moment) as safe. The Utes are not immune to the impact of rising rates, but so far more so than bonds.
Here is a chart of one popular bond EFT. Depending on your timeframe of the hold its either down or flat. You could do as well taking that money and stuffing it into your sock drawer. Or better by doing that.
More than you want to know.