Rate today's boat market?

[socalrider]

Can somebody point me toward the lucrative government program that allows me to stop working and live on a boat? I honestly don't know what you guys are referring to. Unemployment only kicks in if you are laid off, pays a small fraction of your historical salary, and lasts for 26 weeks. This program is funded by payments deducted from the employer and the employee's paycheck.

During COVID there was an expanded unemployment program which was necessary because we were *telling* people not to go in to work to stem the spread. But that ended Sept 4, 2021.

I don't see any shadow "universal basic income" having been implemented - am I missing something?

 

[backinblue]

I don't think anyone suggested you could be unemployed and living on a boat. But when it comes to entry level jobs, many don't pay more than unemployment, hence the choice not to work. But anyone with any ambition and motivation will not want to stay in those low-paying jobs forever.

 

[mvweebles]

I don't think anyone suggested you could be unemployed and living on a boat. But when it comes to entry level jobs, many don't pay more than unemployment, hence the choice not to work. But anyone with any ambition and motivation and skills will not want to stay in those low-apying jobs forever.

......yes, and those are the ones who eventually buy boats. The government funding sources are interesting and relevant at a universal macro economics basis, but irrelevant effect on $100k-$1m boat purchase market

Peter

 

[backinblue]

......yes, and those are the ones who eventually buy boats. The government funding sources are interesting and relevant at a universal macro economics basis, but irrelevant effect on $100k-$1m boat purchase market

Peter

Agreed Peter. How many of us boat owners started in a high-paying professional career? Probably some, but doubtful that's the majority. My first regular "job" aside from things like a paper route, was washing dishes at a nearby restaurant. Started "under the table" until I was legal age at 16. Always pushed myself to bigger and better jobs and never afraid to work long hours, at times regular 20-hour days that included a few hours of night school earning degrees. I could be wrong, but I don't see that kind of drive much in recent generations. A rather disturbing fact is that for the first time in US history, younger generations are not surpassing previous ones in terms of lifestyle and finacial stability. Until now, it always been that case that your standard of living would generally surpass that of your parent's.

 

[socalrider]

I don't think anyone suggested you could be unemployed and living on a boat. But when it comes to entry level jobs, many don't pay more than unemployment, hence the choice not to work. But anyone with any ambition and motivation will not want to stay in those low-paying jobs forever.

But that's my point - you're only eligible for unemployment if you were previously employed AND got laid off for reasons that weren't your fault. It only lasts 26 weeks & pays a fraction of your wage - I just don't see this as a viable way to support a life of shirking.

I know some abuse disability insurance, but again those payments are very small, and haven't changed for decades so far as I know.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
IMO, it's not that some people don't want to work, it's the fact they've been told "go to university and get a good job" since grade 1. Now that they have that degree, they expect a "good" job. Trades or manual labor is beneath them.
The trades are begging for workers but fewer and fewer have been trained. My $.02.

 

[Adopo]

Agreed Peter. How many of us boat owners started in a high-paying professional career? Probably some, but doubtful that's the majority. My first regular "job" aside from things like a paper route, was washing dishes at a nearby restaurant. Started "under the table" until I was legal age at 16. Always pushed myself to bigger and better jobs and never afraid to work long hours, at times regular 20-hour days that included a few hours of night school earning degrees. I could be wrong, but I don't see that kind of drive much in recent generations. A rather disturbing fact is that for the first time in US history, younger generations are not surpassing previous ones in terms of lifestyle and finacial stability. Until now, it always been that case that your standard of living would generally surpass that of your parent's.

Ever watched the hour long interview with Yuri Brezmenov? I rewatched it today on youtube, it is sooooo eye opening and explains a lot of why we are where we are. If you like history you might find it interesting and thought provoking. If you are interested and look for it, watch the longer version that last about an hour. People have been influenced to think the way we do, all of us. I don't think we are not teaching the same values that made this country great.

Anyway, back to the boat market, I called about a particular boat that happens to be in our slip we own at Harbortown HHI. Of course I asked him about the market. He just came from the FLBS and said that brokerage boats have slowed down some time ago, and the market is continuing to correct. But that many sellers don't recognize that just yet....that sounds reasonable and that sounds like a broker I think could trust. People who are in the market like us of course want the prices to come back to earth, those who are selling and appreciate the value they hold in hand of course do not. Those like me that don't have as much time in the hourglass lose every day waiting for jus the right boat.

The first boat I liked, the 68 Cheoy Lee Serernity, my wife did not like. It sold in July 21 for 1.1mm or so. I have stayed in contact with the broker and the new owner would ask 2.2mm. We had a contract on a 64 Grand Alaskan I really liked, but on sea trial it sounded like a PT boat and the fly bridge chairs vibrated like the .25 cent vibrating beds, engine room could have been cleaner etc, and we did not proceed. I really liked that boat. And the 62ft Outer Reed in Oxnard just sold for 1.190mm. I just could not get motivated enough to get out there, and I think that really was a good deal. So...for now I'll send the Scout to Hinckley in Savannah for a refresh and kick around while I wait, and wait, and...

 

[kthoennes]

I tend to agree with socalrider, I don't get it. I know an ocean of COVID Monopoly money sloshed around for a while, but where is all this money to individuals still dropping out of the sky? We constantly struggle to fill vacancies here too. Can barely get anybody to work on cars or "regular" jobs, let alone boats or marinas. Where did all the employees go, don't they still need to buy groceries and pay the rent and mortgages? I watch family groups take out the $500 per-half-day rental boats at our marina every weekend and fill up on $6 gas. Where do they get that disposable income if so many people have dropped out of the labor market?

 

[SteveK]

Speaking locally, businesses are having staffing problems. In a non boating example since covid the medical opinion has been if you are sick stay home. Whether people are sick or not is unproven, but there are many long weekends occurring. Are they getting sick leave pay, with union contracts, probably. So it does not have to be 24/7 non working to upset the apple cart.
For months garbage pickup was hit and miss, two weeks ago I was told on Monday morning 6 drivers called in sick. Well no one has spare drivers sitting in the waiting room to cover that shortfall of employees.

 

[SteveK]

Greetings,
IMO, it's not that some people don't want to work, it's the fact they've been told "go to university and get a good job" since grade 1. Now that they have that degree, they expect a "good" job. Trades or manual labor is beneath them.
The trades are begging for workers but fewer and fewer have been trained. My $.02.

Not just university graduates. Years ago I had a good friend lose their high pay job, the reason I cannot remember. He was union and was getting above average pay in the trade. Well, the only job offers his union hall was able to send his way was average pay, he declined and held out over a year using up his employment insurance.

 

[Hippocampus]

Been explained to me one way to think of it is the three Americas.
Those excluded from advancement due to lack of training, or education or locale that’s truly aimed at meaningful employment. If you want skilled workers you either assume the costs of giving basic education and then the needed skills. Having the absence of STEM in early education makes this too steep a climb and requires too much time and money for many employers. This applies to rural, intercity and non American English speakers populations among others. It becomes trans generational. To some extent the only reality they know and the norm. So forced to game the system creating resentment in them and the resentment expressed by others as expressed by others earlier in this thread.
Second are those caught in the spiral of the wage slave. Without significant capital they’re a few weeks to a few months from insolvency. Many just plod along and again are understandably resentful of others getting services when they have to work so hard just to stay afloat. Understandably conspiracies to keep them under become appealing.
Third are the chosen few. Either from choosing the right parents or understanding what’s required to play the dynamics of the society correctly for their advancement they have both disposable income and can grow investments and or income generating assets. Some reach the point they have enough capital that the money their money makes is sufficient for a luxurious lifestyle.
Fundamental issue is the Horatio Alger story is so rare an occurrence that bitterness about the widening gap between these groups is felt to be insurmountable.
I’m a product of public schools. Transformative event was acceptance in to Stuyvesant HS. Although a public school in Manhattan you needed to take a test to get in. 100% of its graduates were accepted to college. Most on full scholarships as I was. Between that Merit scholarships and low interest student loans most went on to post graduate schools and professional degrees. I went to Columbia, NYU, BU and Harvard. I come from a culture where education is everything. That culture was instilled in my kids and they too have postgraduate education. That experience is decreasing in occurrence. The civil, liberal arts and STEM background you achieved in HS is now often not apparent in college grads. This impacts world view, science denying and the degradation of the social contract with resultant tribalism.
Our next obstacle is when between robotics and AI the professions and trades no longer require the manpower now needed. Lawyers, accountants, middle managers and clinical medicine occupations are already being transformed. Trades like electrical, plumbing, construction, factory now increasingly require an advanced skill set. Need for manual labor increasingly is decreasing even in agriculture.

 

[Gdavid]

Trades like electrical, plumbing, construction, factory now increasingly require an advanced skill set. Need for manual labor increasingly is decreasing even in agriculture.

STEM field education is lacking for a number of reasons and this is a major threat to our current and future technological success, however I believe the current shortage of skilled trade workers is a more immediate risk to prosperity.

I don't completely buy the theory that trades are more complex and education is the answer, the simple truth is that we, as a society do not value, support and encourage young men and women to pursue careers in trades. It is looked upon as a lower class compared to college bound students, regardless of the earning potential and value to society that is developed.

Fortunately in a free market, supply and demand will drive trade wages higher until there is enough incentive to draw more interest into trades. Trades can be backbreaking and tough but it can also be an excellent path to entrepreneurial success as well as a foundation and springboard into STEM fields. Many of the best engineers I work with in the facilities management field, have started in hands on positions, gone back to school to pursue advancement in their career. In my opinion this is a healthier approach, obviously this doesn't apply to all fields such as your own.

 

[socalrider]

STEM field education is lacking for a number of reasons and this is a major threat to our current and future technological success, however I believe the current shortage of skilled trade workers is a more immediate risk to prosperity.

I don't completely buy the theory that trades are more complex and education is the answer, the simple truth is that we, as a society do not value, support and encourage young men and women to pursue careers in trades. It is looked upon as a lower class compared to college bound students, regardless of the earning potential and value to society that is developed.

Fortunately in a free market, supply and demand will drive trade wages higher until there is enough incentive to draw more interest into trades. Trades can be backbreaking and tough but it can also be an excellent path to entrepreneurial success as well as a foundation and springboard into STEM fields. Many of the best engineers I work with in the facilities management field, have started in hands on positions, gone back to school to pursue advancement in their career. In my opinion this is a healthier approach, obviously this doesn't apply to all fields such as your own.

Yeah I agree with this. One exception to this is the military - they do a great job of training. Here in San Diego we benefit from a steady supply of skilled vets who are highly valued in the local job market. As an engineer I had the pleasure of working with graduates of Admiral Rickover's Navy nuke tech training program.

Getting closer to the subject of this post there's a guy down here who installs yacht electronics who drives around in a truck that says something like "The US Government spent $400,000 training me so you don't have to"

 

[Hippocampus]

Have several friends and some of my wife’s family who work trades. They do quite well thank you. One of her nephews stopped the college track and is now a journeyman glazier. Has his own house, boat, several cars , a motorcycle. No debt and still under 30. He works with exotic adhesives on skyscrapers and weird machinery. Windy days he goes fishing or for a ride. About to be married but don’t think that will trim his tail feathers much.
Plumber friend had his own business. Sold out to a corporation at 50 . Now doing RTW. A close friend is an electrician. Has 15-20 trucks out. Specs and prices jobs when the mood strikes him. He and his wife seem to travel the world more than stay home. Much to be said for the trades. I worked in college framing. My son in law in general construction and then fine carpentry before starting to teach middle school. You won’t hear any disrespect from ether my generation nor the one below me.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. (Dr.) H. Well, sir. You are an exception.

 

[socalrider]

Have several friends and some of my wife’s family who work trades. They do quite well thank you. One of her nephews stopped the college track and is now a journeyman glazier. Has his own house, boat, several cars , a motorcycle. No debt and still under 30. He works with exotic adhesives on skyscrapers and weird machinery. Windy days he goes fishing or for a ride. About to be married but don’t think that will trim his tail feathers much.
Plumber friend had his own business. Sold out to a corporation at 50 . Now doing RTW. A close friend is an electrician. Has 15-20 trucks out. Specs and prices jobs when the mood strikes him. He and his wife seem to travel the world more than stay home. Much to be said for the trades. I worked in college framing. My son in law in general construction and then fine carpentry before starting to teach middle school. You won’t hear any disrespect from ether my generation nor the one below me.

The key to long term success in many of the trades seems to be to get a business started on your own back, then hire a good crew and focus on mgmt and QC before your own body starts to give out. I've seen a lot of folks who are really beaten down by the work by the time they're in their late 50's.

 

[backinblue]

I agree trades are a good option but not for everyone. Some do involve a lot of manual labor, some less so. But it also takes a certain mindset and skillset and acceptance of risk to start your own business and be successful. I went from high school to trade school and became an electronic technician. Good job, decent pay and served me well for a while as I was not ready for college immediately. Eventually went to night school and earned advanced degrees in engineering and computer science which further advanced my career. So it's not that college isn't worthwhile, but going just for the sake of going and graduating with a degree that does nothing to help you earn a living is more the problem. Also, the job market will alway evolve with automation computers, etc. In my 40+ years working, I've always looked about 5 years ahead and changed or prepared for what I thought was coming. Nobody should expect to work a lifetime doing the same thing. Even surgeons and pyschiatrists are being replaced by robots, not just farm workers. You always need to look ahead and try to adapt to what's coming or get left behind.

 

[Retriever]

I'm 32. One of the big trends I witnessed among my peers during the COVID mess was people jumping at opportunities to improve their employment situation. Quite a few people I know who were let go from restaurant or retail jobs did training programs in things like coding, computer game design, project management, etc. The training worked--these people are making way more money (almost all over $100k), often from wherever they want, working much better hours. They're not going back to their old jobs serving food or selling cell phones.

 

[PM]

I'm not real sure about the boat market, it does seem to have cooled off a bit during the last year.

Try to buy a used Suburban though. Two hundred thousand plus miles is the norm and pretty much regardless of miles or year $10,000 is about average.

I'm glad mine is in good shape!

pete

 

[backinblue]

I'm not real sure about the boat market, it does seem to have cooled off a bit during the last year.

Try to buy a used Suburban though. Two hundred thousand plus miles is the norm and pretty much regardless of miles or year $10,000 is about average.

I'm glad mine is in good shape!

pete

Pete, I noticed the same thing. Good used cars are not only hard to find but very pricey. Im not sure if that signals a strong market or that people are holding on to their cars and afraid to purchase new because of financial uncertainty and/or rising rates.

 

[Hippocampus]

The key to long term success in many of the trades seems to be to get a business started on your own back, then hire a good crew and focus on mgmt and QC before your own body starts to give out. I've seen a lot of folks who are really beaten down by the work by the time they're in their late 50's.

Unfortunately this is shifting as well.

Several acquaintances and friends have either dramatically changed or closed their businesses due to the lack of labor.
One friend closed his roofing business. Couldn’t find enough workers without substance abuse or disruptive mental health issues to be able to reliably field a safe intact crew to meet completion dates. Dealing with HR and comp problems filled enough of his day there was no time to do his work.
Another progressively bought and took over small to midsize cranberry bogs over a period of years.Same issue. Further made difficult by large agribusiness in Chile, Canada, and Wisconsin. He was no longer cost competitive. His costs for specialized machinery, tractors, trucks etc. to decrease labor requirements couldn’t be spread over enough bog acreage to compete. Between that and hiring bugged out. Switched to a developer. Sold off the bogs with houses he built on them and bugged out.
Another due to inability to find labor shifted his landscaping business. Used to have multiple residential contracts. Dropped them all. Held onto his good workers. Paid them with a degree of base and profit share. Only takes on large contracts for things like condo associations, hospitals, corporate grounds, universities and such. Sold off much of his machinery and making the same money.
Used to be there were solo practitioners in law and medicine. That’s long gone. Same evolution is occurring in many of the trades. If not approached with sufficient capital and scale the small guy can’t put out a reliable product at a cost competitive rate.

 

[Art]

Pete, I noticed the same thing. Good used cars are not only hard to find but very pricey. Im not sure if that signals a strong market or that people are holding on to their cars and afraid to purchase new because of financial uncertainty and/or rising rates.

Used road vehicle prices have gone through the roof!

The used car, suv and truck market seems to have now taken on its own persona.

Price increases for used vehicles were begun by dealers who had trouble getting new vehicles in stock due to C-19 pandemic's upheavals... a result was non availability of vehicles from effects of parts for building vehicles being non available. Within a year of dealers raising prices on used vehicles [in order to make enough $$$ to stay in business] the general public got wise and then hitched on to that unexpected price increase for "their own" used vehicles.

This nutty 2X to 5X price increase for private-market sales of used vehicles is another factor pushing inflation onward. Everybody's scrambling to make another buck! IMO... similar to housing, boats and other items currently unusual levels of increased prices... when Fed-Rates get high enough to throttle the economy enough to stop inflation [i.e. to cause some %age of a recession] - used vehicle prices [asked for and/or paid for] will drop considerable.

Never forget late 70's into early 80's - Fed Chair... Paul Volker!

"Volcker slammed the brakes on the economy by raising interest rates to 20% — tough medicine to prove he was serious about getting inflation under control."

 

[backinblue]

Let's hope it doesn't get that extreme. Side note, I'm really happy with my small 3% mortgage.

 

[Art]

Let's hope it doesn't get that extreme. Side note, I'm really happy with my small 3% mortgage.

Side Note: I'm really happy with current "Zero" [$0.00] dept.

Back in the days of 6'7" Paul Volker shoving his big fat cigar up everyone's - you know what... I learned my lesson as a young man who at that time was heavily leveraged in RE!

 

[rgano]

Rates are already low, compared to "normal" post war levels.

Which war? We have so many.....

 

[smitty477]

Major downsides to not working. Lost of sense of self worth. Fixed income. Increase in depression and substance abuse, increase in divorce and or destruction of significant other relationships. Lack of meaningful social interactions.
Given the nature of my work was involved with many people unable to continue in the work force. Although going out on worker’s comp, or disability at first sounds great most people find it miserable or cycle downwards emotionally.

Lets hope being retired is somehow different.

 

[smitty477]

Let's hope it doesn't get that extreme. Side note, I'm really happy with my small 3% mortgage.

Yes - low % debt was a great move.

 

[backinblue]

Agreed. Low % debt can be better than zero debt at times

 

[Hippocampus]

Lets hope being retired is somehow different.

Smitty you hit on a major issue. For men loneliness has become a major health issue with physical as well as emotional health impacts. Those without outside interests before retirement and poor social networks outside of the work environment seem to be especially prone. Statistics concerning this are sobering.

My father taught me buy all your toys with cash. Only take on debt when ROI exceeds interest rate or forced to for necessities. Although feasible in the past not true at present. So no debt currently is better than some debt even at 3%. Now retired with no debt. Has meant the need to not keep up with the Joneses. Putting the hills into the valleys. A more modest lifestyle results in less stress. Like loneliness stress kills.

 

[smitty477]

Lets hope being retired is somehow different.

Smitty you hit on a major issue. For men loneliness has become a major health issue with physical as well as emotional health impacts. Those without outside interests before retirement and poor social networks outside of the work environment seem to be especially prone. Statistics concerning this are sobering.

My father taught me buy all your toys with cash. Only take on debt when ROI exceeds interest rate or forced to for necessities. Although feasible in the past not true at present. So no debt currently is better than some debt even at 3%. Now retired with no debt. Has meant the need to not keep up with the Joneses. Putting the hills into the valleys. A more modest lifestyle results in less stress. Like loneliness stress kills.

Retirement is not that different for us - always busy.
I see many single men in boats at advanced ages and for the most part it does not look good.

Debt is just a too - you can use it well or abuse it. Life can be easier if you know how to use tools like debt.
Debt can sometimes effectively be used for...
- education
- home purchase
- business
- Credit cards
- asset purchase
to name a few...