what_barnacles
Guru
So just a word of caution. The last time a big cane went thru SC it killed the debit card processors. The cards were down for a week I think.
About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.
Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
Wallace, Worton Creek had some transient spots when I was there Sunday. It's well-protected, especially from the east. If you end up there, let me know; like to shake hands.
Ian (angus99)
Bigfish,
I've tracked Nor'Easters up in Maine/New England for years. Hurricanes are similar. Not identical, but similar. So a bunch of hurricanes come through, and out of all of the model runs, there are say 20 that all bunch up, and maybe 2-3 that disagree. All things being equal, everyone goes with the 20. Then you have a scenario where there are 15 that do one thing, and 8 that do something different. Now?...now you start to pay attention.
Then, you get a split...12 one way, 12 another. Clearly at this point, there is no consensus and no agreement on what's likely to happen.
This storm has been very interesting. Initially, most models said OTS (Out To Sea). A few started saying no, it'll be a bit further west. When the rest of the models caught up to the "outliers", the outliers had already moved again, further west. Euro and GFDL have been steadily moving Westward over the past 4-5 days, with the NHC playing catchup.
That's why this afternoon, there were still models that indicated a Cat 4 landfall in Miami, travelling up the central area of Fl, and then exiting the state up in Jacksonville.
4 Days ago, any model that indicated an East coast landfall was deemed to be lunacy, and yet here we are. SE coastal areas are being evacuated.
Bottom line?...when there's this much disagreement about what something is going to do?...it's because NOBODY knows. Personally?...I think the NHC has done a pretty poor job on this storm. They've been playing catchup for at least 4 days now. In this day and age, that's terrible performance, in my book. Before I get flamed, that's just my opinion, but these folks should be doing a better job than they are, and I believe the thing that holds them back is politics.
Be safe, and I hope everyone that needs one finds a hole.
Ian: We have decided to stay (on the dock) in Chesapeake City til' this blows through.
It's all a crap shoot. C'mon by and see us. DIRT FREE is hard to miss
If you're still there Saturday morning, I'll stop by. Stay safe!
Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
I still like what WINDYTY.com reflects on all weather including this storm.
https://www.windyty.com/?gust,-36.280,137.549,4
Take care all ( a small prayer of thanks that the good Lord placed me where I am)
Al-Ketchikan,Alaska 27' Marben Pocket Cruiser
About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.
Wifey B: Where do you want to be? Home? Near your things? With family and friends? Far away from the hurricane. Seems simple until you face the choices. We have people looking after things for us in South Florida, nothing we need to be there to do. Chicago is safe. Yet, we're feeling bad like we should fly home and be there with them even though we don't think it's coming there. If you decide to fly home, what day? What about family in Myrtle Beach? Should we tell them to fly here? We would choose all our stuff getting destroyed before someone badly hurt protecting any of it. We really are torn over this. We have air tickets for Wednesday morning, just in case we want to go home. We could have them all come here, but if we were there, we wouldn't be leaving based on what we know right now. Guess we'll follow it more tomorrow and think more.
Wifey B: We flew home tonight. Everyone told us to stay in Chicago but we feel so much better home in Fort Lauderdale. We know it's stupid but sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do.
So far, nada. But I have Tide Minders and 600 ft. of rope on the boat that I put there for Hermine just in case. I'd need 4 hours to set it all up.
Im in the Tampa area (Maderia Beach), but have done nothing. If it looks threatening I'm on a life so run it up high and tie it very tight with long spring lines. Add a few plywood panels to the windows of the house, and get out of town....
Anticipation - Green Cove Springs is about 30mil from the ocean on St.Johns river. Took down my bimini top and secure with extra lines. I hope that Mather Nature let me keep it. Floating docks are old and fragile - hook up extra lines to the peer. Large, open area from NE - good for wind, bad for me. Will see what happen.
Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?
At the best - 2-3 feet. They are old and falling apart. They do not have a concrete ( or wooden)post. Any pressure from a side will rip them off. Worst case - I will be floating in river with the dock. There is a reason why this marina is so cheap.Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?