Here's this mornings Chris Parkers thoughts.
Based on the current fix, during past 14hr, Joaquin moved 1.0deg S Latitude / 1.1deg W Longitude / pressure fell 18mb. Joaquin's averaged motion is SW (about 230T), about 5k forward pace, and pressure has fallen more than 1mb/hr.
For Bahamas, this fix is troubling...few forecast model with available Vortex center data predict a SW track. I found 4 GFS Ensemble members, plus EGRR & EGRI, as well as possibly UKMet and EURO which correctly anticipate Joaquin's motion this morning.
All of these models (and ONLY these models) bring Joaquin into some part of the South-Central Bahamas from early Thu1 into early Fri2.
Islands at greatest risk for direct hit: SanSal, Conception, Rum, CatIsl.
Islands at some risk for direct hit: LongIsland, GreatExuma, SamanaCay.
A direct hit could bring 80-100k sustained (gusting 95-120k) wind from various directions.
Joaquin's wind field is compact, so Islands avoiding a direct hit probably see only TropicalStorm winds (under 65k sustained).
Other than increasing wind forecast for Islands at risk of taking direct hit, I don't think there are many important changes to Bahamas forecast today.
Folks along US E Coast...we're arriving at a consensus solution for landfall within 120mi of Hatteras (say CpLookout to S Chesapeake) Sat3 afternoon-Sun4, as Cat1-Cat3 (65-100k sustained). More details to follow in a couple hours. Still some risk for landfall N of Mouth of Chesapeake (DelMarVa-SNewEng)...and still some chance Joaquin goes out to sea and fails to make US landfall, but I'm confident enough at this point in a landfall within 120mi of Hatteras to issue a forecast today...