Is this a good time to buy a trawler?
I've been away from the forum for a while. Recently retired and I have been paying a lot (too much?) of attention to the Wuhan coronavirus. Is this a good time to buy a 55' trawler, in light of the coronavirus?
Here are the possibilities as I see them:
1. "It's just the flu, bro." Ignore all of the evidence we see in Italy and Iran, and what we have been able to see from the Internet-censored China, and assume a year from now we'll look back and see that it was no big deal. No impact on boat prices now or later. My odds are 1/100. Or less.
2. It's bad, but not that bad. The virus spreads like crazy, but with a Case Fatality Rate of 1% spread evenly across ages, but with a higher concentration on third-world countries. No impact on boat prices now or later. My odds are 1/100. Or less.
3. It's like the Spanish Flu. 2% CFR, targets the elderly the hardest. Boat prices fall dramatically as middle-aged children inherit boats that they don't want and can't afford to maintain. By this time next year your 55' trawler will be listed for half of today's price and the sellers will gladly accept half of that. Buy a $300,000 trawler for $75,000. My odds: 60%.
4. It's worse than the Spanish Flu. 8% CFR, elderly die in the first week, middle-aged die in week three of the illness. Hospitals are overwhelmed and it doesn't matter how wonderful your country is, there are no beds, meds, doctors or nurses. Boats are literally being given away if you'll just take over the moorage. My odds: 30%.
5. It's an apocalyptic event. Take Number 4, but now the virus goes dormant in your central nervous system, recurs periodically, and eventually you get a cytokine storm and die. Preppers and genetically fortunate people live, but 80% of the world's population dies over a three-year period. You buy the boat, walk away from your mortgaged house, buy some guns and ammo, and live the next twenty years on the water. My odds: 8%.
There is so much we don't know about the virus. But what we do know so far (not what people are saying, but what we are seeing in hospitals) is that this thing is very bad and it has just begun. It took three years before the Spanish Flu abated, and it did the most killing during year two. We are, for the most part, in month two.
I'm 63 and just retired seven months ago. If I were in Northern Italy and symptomatic they would turn me away because I'm over 60. If I were still living in Greater Seattle my wife and I would be on our boat with six months' worth of canned goods and the freezer loaded with meat. Crab, salmon and halibut as often as we could catch it. Probably bored and lonely, too. Who knows?