It seems like the twilight zone. I have had to partially come out of retirement due to lack of staff and i just felt sorry for them. It seems like there is an endless stream of cash and people are not working but i have no idea how. It also seems people have placed orders on boats and motorhomes into the near future so it would seem it will really take something for the market to change.If things go bad with the economy it seems like folks will likely use the live for today model.If things go good they will be encouraged to buy more toys so i am not sure if any scenario will change the outcome. One thing that affects me is finding myself between a rock and a hardspot with work and not being able to have fun with the toys.
Excerpt quotes from your post:
- "
It seems like the twilight zone." Well yes it is, sorta! In the late 70's and early 80's I was a young, leverage-loan RE investor who rode that "twilight zone" interest rate wave! It was a tough, big and nasty wave to ride... believe me!!
- "
It seems like there is an endless stream of cash and people are not working but i have no idea how." And neither do they understand it! LOL
But please do understand this: Mid 1970's inflation in U.S. got way out of hand [just like what is happening in these early years of the 2020's] Late 70's thru early 1980's, to put the brakes on inflation, the Fed went nuts in the increase of interest rates [exactly the same as is about to happen very soon]. The Fed who had kept interest low for too long [nearly exactly the same as these last few/several years] suddenly warned of interest rate hikes that were soon to begin... in the multiples [exactly as is occurring this very day throughout the news sources' reporting methods].
Outcome to the Fed's severe interest rate hikes in early 1980's [to stop inflation]: Considerably deep recession that was not overcome till late 80's, early 90's.
Outcome to the Fed's soon to appear interest rate hikes that begin to take effect in 2022 [to stop inflation]: Your guess is as good as mine. However, I will say... This time not only is the population in general over leveraged but so to is the U.S. govt - way over leveraged. My bet is recession... how deep it gets is my question. Knowing it would come down to this... this time... very unlike my at a young age super over leveraged RE Joy ride in the late 1970's/early 80's - I own no one a dime! In the mean time... I'm building an internationally positioned business... out of my own pocket! I wish everyone the best of luck during these next several years.
Historical Note - Interest rate increase by the Fed - late 1970's:
How much did Paul Volcker raise rates?
Mr. Volcker, overcoming the objections of many of his colleagues, raised interest rates to an unprecedented 20 percent, drastically reducing the supply of money and credit. At a shocking, unscheduled Saturday night news conference announcing those steps just two months after taking office, in October 1979
What is a Paul Volcker moment?
A “Volcker Moment” refers to a policy change like the decision by the Federal Reserve under former Chairman Paul Volcker to quickly raise interest rates to 20% to contain the inflation of the late 1970s. That sudden change caused a jump in unemployment but also led to inflation slowing.