Case in point on boat prices today

[Helmsman]

Worked at the Framingham heart study and boarded in stroke medicine. Much of above is distorted from our current understanding of pathogenesis and doesn’t consider the complexities of that subject. Furthermore has lead to a contentious discussion. Hopefully folks here are aware recent studies suggest risk benefit does not justify daily ASA except for a relatively small subset of people.

Some would say “live fast and leave a pretty corpse”. Others “my body is a temple “. In either case being overly judgmental says more about you than that person. Can we move on.

An excellent book on aging and what you can do about it is “Life Span”. A researcher who studies aging wrote it. Increasing the level of NMN and NAD in your system jump starts cellular repair, which otherwise slows down over time. Aging is a decrease in the ability of the cells to repair themselves.

His belief, backed up by data and research on mammals backs his thesis up. In addition, his findings have been endorsed by other medical authorities. I recommend it highly.

 

[BruceK]

Price, especially if it seems excessive and value may not hold, is a consideration. Balance that with with,"how long do I have to enjoy it?". Predicting dotage or death time is an uneducated guess. On one view, the shorter that time is(unless it`s like tomorrow)the more you should do it.

So, if within reason there is something you want that will contribute to your enjoyment of life, and you can afford it, don`t wait,do it. For tomorrow, who knows?

Will this score an appreciative monkey assessment? Maybe.

 

[RT Firefly]

 

[Judy at JWY]

This thread has drifted so far from the current boat prices, that it's almost unfair to someone looking for information, some of which in the thread is relevant. My apologies for contributing to the diversions.

Can the Mods maybe divide it into threads. My suggestions:
Current boat prices
Older boaters
Health
Delete-worthy posts

 

[Art]

]

RT - Some of your posts are hilarious, some insightful, some educational.

Some are non of the above.

EDIT: I came back in to remove post 153's image.

 

[Hippocampus]

Two issues. Teleomeres and apoptosis. Much work has been done trying to understand the biology of both. Probably not germane to a discussion of boat prices. However, the underlying philosophy of people concerning egocentric behavior (my enjoyment/my experiences) and moral obligations ( what am I leaving my family or donating to leave the world better than I found it) is a dynamic that I think effects what boat prices we’d accept. Add in the concern about outliving our money and think that’s much of mix in decision making for mature individuals. For the working population income security is another important factor. Just read a interesting article about the segmentation of the publics view concerning inflation and the health of the economy. The parallels were of note.
Think it’s rare for people to be purely altruistic or egocentric. But people do tend to stay in a range within that spectrum. Similarly there’s a personality driven idiosyncratic range of risk aversion and we usually stay with a small age appropriate segment of that range.
At present the market is distorted from historical norms. How we respond to that distortion is a reflection of the above in my view.
For me the decision matrix was
Have I met my obligations-yes
Will this impact on the odds of me outliving my resources-no
Can I absorb the cost of ownership-yes
Can I absorb a total loss of residual value -yes.
Had my financial advisor computor model this decision noting when the market crashes material assets such as luxury real estate (and second homes and boats) tend to lose value as well. Set a very risk limit that this decision would not impact my overall financial health.
After this analysis bought the boat. Accept this is an egocentric action tempered only by the times my descendants enjoy the boat with me. With our last boat we used it at times as a platform to enable volunteer work and humanitarian transport of goods and our services . With this boat those opportunities are more limited but hopefully will still exist.

 

[ofer]

The only think that will kill this thread is when boat prices drop dramatically.

I believe it will happen in 2022.

for now let's keep this alive.

 

[BandB]

Amazing how easy it is for us to spend someone else's money, too.

 

[Art]

Two issues. Teleomeres and apoptosis. Much work has been done trying to understand the biology of both. Probably not germane to a discussion of boat prices. However, the underlying philosophy of people concerning egocentric behavior (my enjoyment/my experiences) and moral obligations ( what am I leaving my family or donating to leave the world better than I found it) is a dynamic that I think effects what boat prices we’d accept.

If your Teleomeres hang on tough enough there will be less death accounted to an overload of apoptosis. Therefore in relation to boat prices... more alive people means more chance to sell boats... so, prices may go up! Simple math - LOL!!

 

[FWT]

The only think that will kill this thread is when boat prices drop dramatically.

I believe it will happen in 2022.

for now let's keep this alive.

The Fed today seemed to forecast 3 rate hikes in 2022 and another couple in 2023, in their famous "dot plot". Higher boat loan rates and a softer stock market ought to do it.

 

[Seevee]

The Fed today seemed to forecast 3 rate hikes in 2022 and another couple in 2023, in their famous "dot plot". Higher boat loan rates and a softer stock market ought to do it.

I'm surprised that they haven't raised it already.... oh, forgot, I'm not surprised. However, I'd bet money on some sort of "adjustment" coming. Most likely not a recession, but perhaps a leveling, dip, prices stabilizing or going down a bit. And that might be good for boating. In times like this, most of our incomes will not keep up.



If we look at history, it always repeats itself...... sometimes too quick.



There sure is an argument to "do it now" and that could be when you're approaching the half way mark.

 

[kthoennes]

Yeah, for all this talk of carpe diem, go for the gusto, don't die at your desk, etc. -- with all the wild uncertainty swirling around out there, at this rate I'm going to have to work until I'm 97, generous portfolio or not.

 

[Art]

I'm surprised that they haven't raised it already.... oh, forgot, I'm not surprised. However, I'd bet money on some sort of "adjustment" coming. Most likely not a recession, but perhaps a leveling, dip, prices stabilizing or going down a bit. And that might be good for boating. In times like this, most of our incomes will not keep up.



If we look at history, it always repeats itself...... sometimes too quick.



There sure is an argument to "do it now" and that could be when you're approaching the half way mark.

"There's a rumble in the jungle"! Matter O' Fact - there's several rumbles getting louder!

Smile We're on the worldwide Candid Camera - Lifestyle!!

 

[magna 6882]

It seems like the twilight zone. I have had to partially come out of retirement due to lack of staff and i just felt sorry for them. It seems like there is an endless stream of cash and people are not working but i have no idea how. It also seems people have placed orders on boats and motorhomes into the near future so it would seem it will really take something for the market to change.If things go bad with the economy it seems like folks will likely use the live for today model.If things go good they will be encouraged to buy more toys so i am not sure if any scenario will change the outcome. One thing that affects me is finding myself between a rock and a hardspot with work and not being able to have fun with the toys.

 

[Art]

It seems like the twilight zone. I have had to partially come out of retirement due to lack of staff and i just felt sorry for them. It seems like there is an endless stream of cash and people are not working but i have no idea how. It also seems people have placed orders on boats and motorhomes into the near future so it would seem it will really take something for the market to change.If things go bad with the economy it seems like folks will likely use the live for today model.If things go good they will be encouraged to buy more toys so i am not sure if any scenario will change the outcome. One thing that affects me is finding myself between a rock and a hardspot with work and not being able to have fun with the toys.

Excerpt quotes from your post:

- "It seems like the twilight zone." Well yes it is, sorta! In the late 70's and early 80's I was a young, leverage-loan RE investor who rode that "twilight zone" interest rate wave! It was a tough, big and nasty wave to ride... believe me!!

- "It seems like there is an endless stream of cash and people are not working but i have no idea how." And neither do they understand it! LOL

But please do understand this: Mid 1970's inflation in U.S. got way out of hand [just like what is happening in these early years of the 2020's] Late 70's thru early 1980's, to put the brakes on inflation, the Fed went nuts in the increase of interest rates [exactly the same as is about to happen very soon]. The Fed who had kept interest low for too long [nearly exactly the same as these last few/several years] suddenly warned of interest rate hikes that were soon to begin... in the multiples [exactly as is occurring this very day throughout the news sources' reporting methods].

Outcome to the Fed's severe interest rate hikes in early 1980's [to stop inflation]: Considerably deep recession that was not overcome till late 80's, early 90's.

Outcome to the Fed's soon to appear interest rate hikes that begin to take effect in 2022 [to stop inflation]: Your guess is as good as mine. However, I will say... This time not only is the population in general over leveraged but so to is the U.S. govt - way over leveraged. My bet is recession... how deep it gets is my question. Knowing it would come down to this... this time... very unlike my at a young age super over leveraged RE Joy ride in the late 1970's/early 80's - I own no one a dime! In the mean time... I'm building an internationally positioned business... out of my own pocket! I wish everyone the best of luck during these next several years.

Historical Note - Interest rate increase by the Fed - late 1970's:

How much did Paul Volcker raise rates?

Mr. Volcker, overcoming the objections of many of his colleagues, raised interest rates to an unprecedented 20 percent, drastically reducing the supply of money and credit. At a shocking, unscheduled Saturday night news conference announcing those steps just two months after taking office, in October 1979

What is a Paul Volcker moment?

A “Volcker Moment” refers to a policy change like the decision by the Federal Reserve under former Chairman Paul Volcker to quickly raise interest rates to 20% to contain the inflation of the late 1970s. That sudden change caused a jump in unemployment but also led to inflation slowing.

 

[kthoennes]

You know whether we're talking boat prices, real estate prices or any other economic question in the universe, I think the modern gov't habit of printing oceans of Monopoly money anytime there's a crisis of any kind is distorting everything so badly I can't rationally predict anything. My $50-75k boat could be worth a million dollars tomorrow -- and the price of a gallon of milk could be $1,000. With $30 trillion in debt in the US alone (one and a half times GDP), I'm astounded we haven't become the Weimar Republic in 1923 already.

All this craziness really is pushing me to get the boat in the best possible shape as fast as I can because for all I know that 44 lb. stainless Lewmar delta anchor I want is going to be $5,000 day after tomorrow. I'm kind of in this buckle-down mentality already. Already have a new battery charger in the storage unit, ordering the new alternators in the next few days, replaced the fridge, inverter, sent off the RayMarine C-80 for repair, sent off the shredded canvas panel for replacement, and ordered the new plasma cutter and TIG welder so I can fabricate the dinghy derrick before launch in April. Better do it now before China invades Taiwan, Russia invades Ukraine, or a loaf of bread costs $9,000.

 

[Gdavid]

You know whether we're talking boat prices, real estate prices or any other economic question in the universe, I think the modern gov't habit of printing oceans of Monopoly money anytime there's a crisis of any kind is distorting everything so badly I can't rationally predict anything. My $50-75k boat could be worth a million dollars tomorrow -- and the price of a gallon of milk could be $1,000. With $30 trillion in debt in the US alone (one and a half times GDP), I'm astounded we haven't become the Weimar Republic in 1923 already.

All this craziness really is pushing me to get the boat in the best possible shape as fast as I can because for all I know that 44 lb. stainless Lewmar delta anchor I want is going to be $5,000 day after tomorrow. I'm kind of in this buckle-down mentality already. Already have a new battery charger in the storage unit, ordering the new alternators in the next few days, replaced the fridge, inverter, sent off the RayMarine C-80 for repair, sent off the shredded canvas panel for replacement, and ordered the new plasma cutter and TIG welder so I can fabricate the dinghy derrick before launch in April. Better do it now before China invades Taiwan, Russia invades Ukraine, or a loaf of bread costs $9,000.

We can argue and possibly agree on economic policy all day long here, but don't expect your terrible choice in anchors to get ignored. Delta anchors are a recipe for disappointment, in my opinion.

 

[mvweebles]

.... for all I know that 44 lb. stainless Lewmar delta anchor I want is going to be $5,000 day after tomorrow.

Umm....I happen to have a 44 lb Delta I'd be happy to sell today for a solid 40% discount off your expectation. But wait....there's more: If you send the money today, I'll include shipping for free

Personally, at 60-yrs old, I'm more concerned about time than money. If cost of boats is too inflated, get a smaller boat so it hurts less. But depending on your age and family history, get the boat. I promise - in 20-years, you will remember the adventure much, much more than the over-spend.

Peter

 

[Wildbill]

Life is Short. A statement I appreciate more being a Emergency and Trauma PA for 30 years and a Heavy rescue and EMS lieutenant prior. I have burnout, No doubt, after Covid and a change to industrial methods of care delivery, and (My opinion only) social media creating a more rude, disrespectful and demanding (I want it now) society. Having dodged the big C, and family history of all males except my cousin and I passing due to cardiac (failed my recent nuclear stress test I did "just in case", awaiting cards consult), I'm 15 regular and 9 Pool shifts (they are holding me because of understaffed) from retirement. since meeting a LOOPER in early 1970's while lobstering in Massachusetts I've wanted to go. Admiral signed on, sold my toys, and selling Harley, after Trawler school, bought a Hatteras (paid too much), so much to learn, (she's nothing like the old 42 ft Duffy wetdeck). But we're going....I'm both excited and scared, every journey begins with that first step, (trawler school and week with training captain)...Trying to go to my maker with NO regrets ..Like I say if gas was $10 a gallon we'd still buy it to fill our sleds and bikes and bitch about driving to work >;-) Just go for it....Life is short!!!

 

[kthoennes]

Yep, I get that too. I am really conflicted lately. Even though I'm spooked by global chaos, I can really see both sides. We bought our boat in 2015, when I accidentally submitted a bid on eBay of all things. My bid was so ridiculously low that I thought I'd be outbid in five minutes, but nobody ever did. Even then I thought, fine, we'll fly out there and see it and walk away if it's a dog. Turns out the seller was a fantastic guy, he just wanted to be done, the boat was in fantastic shape so we went through with it. Incredibly good purchase price, but then we decided to motor it about 350 miles from Newport to Albany, pull it out, do a pile of upgrades, dismantle it, hire an 18-wheeler to ship it 1,500 miles to South Dakota, and then reassemble it on the other end. When I totaled up the cost of all that -- well, it was pretty shocking. But that trip was a blast, trip of a lifetime, and I don't regret a single dollar or a single minute. There's the dilemma -- I want to carpe diem, and I want security and prudence.

 

[Helmsman]

Life is Short. A statement I appreciate more being a Emergency and Trauma PA for 30 years and a Heavy rescue and EMS lieutenant prior. I have burnout, No doubt, after Covid and a change to industrial methods of care delivery, and (My opinion only) social media creating a more rude, disrespectful and demanding (I want it now) society. Having dodged the big C, and family history of all males except my cousin and I passing due to cardiac (failed my recent nuclear stress test I did "just in case", awaiting cards consult), I'm 15 regular and 9 Pool shifts (they are holding me because of understaffed) from retirement. since meeting a LOOPER in early 1970's while lobstering in Massachusetts I've wanted to go. Admiral signed on, sold my toys, and selling Harley, after Trawler school, bought a Hatteras (paid too much), so much to learn, (she's nothing like the old 42 ft Duffy wetdeck). But we're going....I'm both excited and scared, every journey begins with that first step, (trawler school and week with training captain)...Trying to go to my maker with NO regrets ..Like I say if gas was $10 a gallon we'd still buy it to fill our sleds and bikes and bitch about driving to work >;-) Just go for it....Life is short!!!

Sign up with the AGLCA if you haven’t already. It is an active looper site with tremendous advice for those considering the loop. They also have discounts. You will be fine on the loop, and I think will enjoy it greatly. I am happy you are going for it. I want to myself, and probably will in a couple of years. Feel free to contact me if you make the Chattanooga side trip, and and I will help you with what to check out and buy you a drink!

 

[Wildbill]

Thanks Helmsman...We've been AGLCA members for a couple years and have appreciated the information. We'll be sure to look you up should our trip allow such a side trip. Recently met a fellow trawler member in Nashville during a medical convention. Thanks again.

 

[eddietezdj]

I have a dear friend who retired at 53yo cuz he could. He and his wife were quite frugal. The wife always has used teabags twice. Anyway, not ever having had kids, today they are quite wealthy. I have been telling them for 15 years to start spending, travel, do something. Nope. Well, today my friend can hardly walk and he is just finishing a regimen of chemo after having a kidney removed. I think my friends became so accustomed to accumulating money that they cannot brings themselves to spend it. Money in the bank is nice but, beyond a certain point, having it is no better than not having it cuz it will only be enjoyed by someone else when you die.[/QUOTE]


My husband and I are now in the position of those friends with the medical problems. We will soon have to get rid of our sailboat which we've had for 47 years. BUT we didn't wait until we were officially retired to go cruising. We bought the boat in our mid 30s, (we had always lived frugally as we do now,) saved up $10K and went for as long as the money lasted. Over all we covered the East Coast and spent 3 winters in the Bahamas. Worked in between cruises.
At the time our contemporary-aged friends said we should continue to work and get more money. Our older friends said, "Go Now."

We are now pushing 80 and stuck in cold Maryland, but we have warm memories of exploring, diving, and all those things we couldn't accomplish now. Think about climbing in and out of a dinghy, even from the swim platform of a trawler (which we never got to move up to.)
Today is the youngest you will ever be. Take advantage and go now.

 

[Adopo]

Thanks to all for your post. I have an update.

Me and my wife felt like we were almost killed January 4th on the Florida turnpike. I say almost because we weren't of course as I am typing this. She broke her arm in two places and we are waiting for surgery scheduled for January 11th. I might add I feel awful about this. What could I have done different? How could I have prevented this and taken better care of her? She is my reason to be.

I started this thread about increasing boat prices, and then it became more about time, and more importantly, time running out. I got a reminder about time expiring out on the Florida Turnpike when a 550 Mercedes was stationary, perpendicular to our path and completely stopped as we hit it at highway speeds in a AMG 55G Wagon. It was just past a rest area, very dark, no lights, no moon, with car sideways to me, and it was a black car on a black road. I barely hit the brakes before impact. Thankfully we were in this heavy beast that I think protected our lives. Although the pictures don't really show it as it held up well, the impact was tremendous. Both airbags went off in our faces, and I think this is what broke her arm as she was reading me an email on her phone. I did'nt even know it until I went back to the car, but the windshield blew out. The folks in the 550 sedan where airlifted out. I called to find out about our vehicle and discovered that the G Wagon was being stored in a lot that is not open to the public as vehicles involved in homicide investigations and fatalities are store there. My heart sank, I have been praying for the folks since they were flow out. I tried to open the doors of the sedan with others, but they would not even budge from the crow bar and they were semi conscious in the car. After locating the gentleman thought the google search engine I was able to verify through his son that they will survive, although it will be a long struggle. Thank God for that. They other parties have been charged, so we will see how that comes out.

I guess one could say, this is the result of the boat search. We found a boat in Stuart that we have a contract on and we had just left about an hour prior for St Pete. And we are still pursuing this as the sea trail and survey have been set. So, time is short, maybe even shorter than we know. My Moto has been "Go like hell until you can't". Another I have come up with recently is "Just think of all the things you can do when you are dead". We are alive, we are moving forward, and I am sure if we get this boat, or some other, we will rely on the advice of the good members of The Trawler Forum. Let's just hope all recover fully, and we can go on going until we can't.

https://www.yachtworld.com/yacht/2001-grand-alaskan-raised-pilothouse-8156584/

 

[Doug_Snider]

Thanks to all for your post. I have an update.

Me and my wife felt like we were almost killed January 4th on the Florida turnpike. I say almost because we weren't of course as I am typing this. She broke her arm in two places and we are waiting for surgery scheduled for January 11th. I might add I feel awful about this. What could I have done different? How could I have prevented this and taken better care of her? She is my reason to be.

Welcome to the survivor’s club. From personal experience, I can assure you that every moment will now be more precious, not just the ones afloat. It looks like a beautiful boat and I hope all goes well with the survey and sea trial. I also hope all goes well with the surgery. As a result of our accident, my wife underwent seven surgeries on her hand. On the bright side, the other driver and his employer are major contributors to the purchase of our new boat.

 

[healhustler]

Holy smokes…what a traumatic moment for you guyz!

Thankfully, it’s now down to recovery rather than the alternative. Who knows, perhaps both of these vehicles are playing a big part in your recollection about what really matters, and by sharing the experience, you’re reminding us all. I know it must have been a moment when both of you said “thank God we’re alive”.

Thanks to being thankful, you now have the opportunity to feel it again when you are cruising effortlessly in your new machine. Coffee in hand on a crisp morning, you step from your pilothouse to feel the cool breeze in your face and hear yourself solemnly reiterate, “thank God we’re alive”.

 

[Sailor of Fortune]

wow, what a horrible ordeal. Glad your both doing well now.

 

[hollywood8118]

Thank god you were in a G wagon and not a Explorer or some lesser SUV.
I have a friend with one and those things are truly a tank, what they lack in looks they make up in safety. Hopefully all parties mend and this can be a bump in the road of life. Thank the engineers at MB for saving all your lives,.
By the way I love the grand alaskan, what a beautiful boat
Hollywood

 

[socalrider]

Wow. Thank you for sharing this with us as a reminder to be grateful for each moment we are given. Best wishes on a speedy recovery.

 

[Adopo]

Thanks guys, and to top it off we both had the CV right before Christmas. Of course some said if you don't do the antibodies, you might die, so I did them and actually felt worse. Not terrible overall, not even a real cough, just like a bad cold that sapped your energy. My wife's case was even milder. She's had a rough patch, from falling off the Grand Banks August in Ketchikan when no step was provided and getting the concussion and three broken vertebra in her back (wing bones) and loosing her sense of smell because of the fall, to CV and now this. I think that's three so we should be ok her on out.