I often keep CNBC running in the background in the mornings (old habit from working on Wall Street). Phil Lebeau, CNBCs auto-industry expert, has been reporting that the auto sector is still very strong, mostly due to supply shortages and demand overhang. He does not see an end in sight.
However.....
Housing on the other hand has already been hit with cascading effects to builders. A good friend who is a successful realtor tells me she's super busy as buyers are trying to lock-in before it gets worse, and (thankfully) sellers are listing to get tail end of the market. There is also some overhang of traditional buyers who were beat-out by cash-buyers. However, that portends a change in the price trajectory to at least flattening if not reversing altogether. Even at the higher end of the market - while rich people can afford it, they also have a strong sense to 'keep their powder dry.' Realtor.com reports number of available houses at the highest rate since mid 2019, pending home sales have declined for six straight months. Clearly, the market is starting to clear, and 30-year mortgage rate at around 6% can only accelerate. Jobless claims are creeping up, and the worker hubris that fueld the Great Resignation has evaporated.
There is a lot of bad financial news out right now, and not many reasons to optimistic in the near term. The Wealth Effect is erroding fast, though if Jaime Dimen is correct, the huge pandemic stimulus injected into the economy that fueled purchasing power won't subside until late this year.
It's just hard to imagine a scenario where boats (and RVs) sales do anything but contract. It will take some time for sellers to shake-off the lofty selling prices from recent times so I'd guess a disconnect in the market, and inventories will increase. But at some point in approx 6-months, unless something really changes, the boat market will likely stall. Let's not forget that buying a boat also means financing for many. And there's always the hurdles of finding a slip and getting insurance.
I would sure hate to be a seller right now. Over the last couple years I've written the oft-repeated sentiment that life is short, why wait to buy? But if I were a buyer right now, I wouldn't be in any hurry. Sure is nice to be on the sidelines....
Peter