I suspect we will not really know until some of the active participants cycle out of active service, and will be able to speak freely. At some point...someone will come forward and say " I was the lookout and radioed the bridge but they didn't take action.....", or "I was the helmsman and my superior said hold your course"
I think every possible scenario falls into one of three categories( this applies to both the Fitz & McCain ):
#1. Was not aware of the other ship.
#2 Was aware of the other ship and decided not to act.
#3 Was aware of the ship and took wrong or insufficient action.
The first choice seems really unlikely given the amount of human and electronic monitoring we assume was available.
The second is possible, as it could have been the "We're the US Navy, you will get out of our way or else" attitude, but this seems unlikely as at least with the Fitz, I can't see anyone less than the Captain making that call, and he was asleep in his bunk.
Scenario #3 then becomes the only reasonable alternative, as unlikely as it seems.
I can say from some experience that action and communication under pressure become complicated. I have a graduate degree in management, and getting the 13 year old boy to drop the stern anchor and the wife to cut the engine and raise the outdrive while I jumped off bow as we approached a crowed beach in a 6 knot current was a humbling experience the first time we tried it. Thank god for good samaritans and better fenders.
Before anyone jumps all over me, I'm not comparing beaching a bowrider to commanding a destroyer, I'm just acknowleging that the more complex the action, and the more links in the chain, the harder a process becomes. Hopefully this proces will lead to reconsiderion of many accepted practices and the asking of questions that need to be asked:
Do our sailors have drills for what to do when a freighter is at 100 yards and closing fast ? As the waterways get more crowded does the training regimen need to adapt to situations like that ?
We are at a time when autonomous unmanned shipping is close to being a reality. If that's the case, should there be a central "Navy Control Center" that says: Attention US McCain....are you aware of the freighter 1/2 mile to your south east ?"
Are junior officers under so much pressure to advance that waking the captain makes you look unsure and unqualified ?
Would it make sense to have dual captains on board ?
Should navigation responsibility be entirely separate from shipboard management of people, weapons, offense and defense capability etc ?
Does anyone track collisions per mile ? Are destroyers operating so much more than other vessels that thier collisions are just a matter of statistics ? What is the average mile/collision of a tanker, freighter, carrier, destroyer etc. Find variances and explore them. The fact that these incidents all happened in the 7th fleet seems to indicate a localized issue. Why?
As tragic as these situations have been, with 17 sailors killed and many more wounded, this is an opportunity for the Navy to reconsider methods and re-evaluate procedures and find a root cause. Hopefully the parents of the sailors, Congress, and Navy Leadership will make sure that everything possible is done to keep our sailors safe.