Rate today's boat market?

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Prairie Salt

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I'm new, learning about the trawler boat market.

How is post pandemic, rising inflation, rising interest rates affecting the current market?

Speculation for future? 6 months? 12 months?
 
Been talking to a broker at the big show and yes it is slowing, has to. Anyone at the show care to comment?
 
A broker told me that slow down in sales for boats typically lags a slowdown in real estate but that it has already started to slow. After reading nothing but bad news foreshadowing the future of the housing market, I have to wonder just where we will be next year this time. A rise in interest rates and a continuing recession can't be good for any market. And it has to slow down, there is no where to go but down when you reach these heights. We have had an amazing run in everything, unfortunately including extreme inflation.

Do most people finance boats are are they cash buyers? It made sense to finance with cheap money, but it's not as cheap anymore.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonath...rily-similar-to-2000s-crisis/?sh=205fe94b7511

https://nypost.com/2022/10/28/us-ho...ng-as-housing-market-rapidly-cools-economist/

https://investorplace.com/2022/09/why-a-2022-housing-market-crash-could-be-worse-than-2008/
 
......
Do most people finance boats are are they cash buyers? It made sense to finance with cheap money, but it's not as cheap anymore.....
A friend who owns a company that installs windows tells me his business has slowed-up because his customers often take a second mortgage and have $20k-$50k in windows installed. At 3% interest it was an easy decision. At 7%----not so much. Made me wonder how many "cash buyers" for other assets such as boats and RVs actually have a second mortgage in the background.........

Peter
 
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A broker told me that slow down in sales for boats typically lags a slowdown in real estate but that it has already started to slow. After reading nothing but bad news foreshadowing the future of the housing market, I have to wonder just where we will be next year this time. A rise in interest rates and a continuing recession can't be good for any market. And it has to slow down, there is no where to go but down when you reach these heights. We have had an amazing run in everything, unfortunately including extreme inflation.

Interest rates are rising by design to slow down runaway inflation. Whether that's ultimately good or bad for any market remains to be seen, but remember that rates are being pushed higher on purpose, they are not just rising for no reason. They will continue to rise until inflation is reigned in. Of course housing and boats and other markets will cool off, that's the whole plan.
 
[R]emember that rates are being pushed higher on purpose, they are not just rising for no reason. They will continue to rise until inflation is reigned in.

That's one way to look at it. It is certainly true that rates will continue to rise until inflation abates. But after that, we will see mortgage rates (for example) return to the 3% range? That seems unlikely.

I happen to believe that interest rates have been suppressed at artificially low rates for several years, and the present trend is actually allowing rates to drift up more into line with what an unregulated market might look like.
 
Earlier this year before I decided to sell the GB36 I said boat prices will not go down until I put my boat up for sale.

You're welcome buyers.
 
Story of my life. I should have sold yesterday.

pete
 
Some years back,Australia ratcheted housing interest rates to 17-18% to combat inflation. Ugly, eventually the economy hit the wall, hard. "The recession we had to have" said our Prime Minister.

Once inflation comes back to target. 2-3%, interest rates would normally reduce to "normal levels".

But this time, with the world a mess politically, economically and in terms of energy,anything could happen. I`ve not seen the world in such a mess,so it`s hard to predicate on past experience without all the current issues.
 
:angel:
Some years back,Australia ratcheted housing interest rates to 17-18% to combat inflation. Ugly, eventually the economy hit the wall, hard. "The recession we had to have" said our Prime Minister.

Once inflation comes back to target. 2-3%, interest rates would normally reduce to "normal levels".

But this time, with the world a mess politically, economically and in terms of energy,anything could happen. I`ve not seen the world in such a mess,so it`s hard to predicate on past experience without all the current issues.

Is that ever true, Russia Ukraine could boil over, and I've often wondered why the stupidest people seem to rise to the top in politics, come crook, hook, deception..whatever it takes. And their actions and policies affect all of us, most often in a negative way. It must be nice to be a sailor, with nothing but the wind and sun to guide your way.
 
Non-scientifically it does not seem to me that there's a flood of boats on the market at least within my personal search criteria. There seem to be very few good trawlers under $250k in the 50' range on the market on the West Coast at least. Most of the ones I see have been on the market for a long time; I don't see much new stuff popping up.
 
Non-scientifically it does not seem to me that there's a flood of boats on the market at least within my personal search criteria. There seem to be very few good trawlers under $250k in the 50' range on the market on the West Coast at least. Most of the ones I see have been on the market for a long time; I don't see much new stuff popping up.

Forgive me for sounding so pessimistic, but I think it's coming. Of course anything can happen if you wait long enough and there will be a crash at some point. I'll Never forget all of the warnings on the last housing crash, doom and gloom warnings from a friend who seemed to be getting left behind..then the crash came and he was flush with all cash.
 
Forgive me for sounding so pessimistic, but I think it's coming. Of course anything can happen if you wait long enough and there will be a crash at some point. I'll Never forget all of the warnings on the last housing crash, doom and gloom warnings from a friend who seemed to be getting left behind..then the crash came and he was flush with all cash.

Nobody knows of course, but as backinblue noted, rates are going up by design to cool off an overheated market. I was much more nervous that we'd get a recession when rates were already effectively at zero, leaving the Fed with fewer tools. If the economy shows signs of slowing faster than what is desired, you'd better believe the Fed will telegraph its intention to stop future rate hikes, or even drop rates again.
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-r...=r8eksp1hydhudwp&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

Headline on WSJ.com this morning (paywall). In short, according to article, economic economy has largely shrugged off effects of inflation and interest rates largely because household balance sheets have been buoyed by pandemic fueled savings and are in the best condition prior to any recession since the 1950s. According to Goldman Sachs analysis, there is $1.7 trillion in excess savings, roughly $5500 per household. This broadly tracks with statements made by Jamie Dimon of JPMC earlier this year.

It may take longer than normal for boat market to soften.

Peter
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Peter, anyone else think that number is not too different than the govt handouts to families for COVID relief. Giving money to people who didn't need it, we shouldn't be surprised that they are in better shape. Not a political statement, just an econmic one.
 
The prices of houses is/use to be inversely proportional to interest rates.
Price for boats is different. Boats...... involves disposable income and interest rates.

Everyone wants/needs a house.
Boats......not so much.
 
Peter, anyone else think that number is not too different than the govt handouts to families for COVID relief. Giving money to people who didn't need it, we shouldn't be surprised that they are in better shape. Not a political statement, just an econmic one.

The pandemic-fueled effects on bank accounts to which Peter refers, the WSJ article anyway, has nothing to do with folks getting handouts. The savings rate increased substantially because, for two years, folks had many fewer ways to spend their money. This pent-up demand is a major cause of demand-side inflation. Also, I agree whole-heartedly with the premise of the article, that is, inflation is baked into the public's thinking. Inflation will subside in the coming months and prices (generally) may come down a bit but will largely remain in today's ranges. The exception will be energy prices in the short term. In the long term energy supplies will normalize and prices will trend downward. Wages will soon approach equalization and life will go on much the same as it always has.

For folks such as most on this board inflation has little effect on our standard of living. Sure, the cost of diesel gives some pause but most of us just pay the price and keep on cruising just as we always have. Neither will a recession affect us much.
 
The pandemic-fueled effects on bank accounts to which Peter refers, the WSJ article anyway, has nothing to do with folks getting handouts. The savings rate increased substantially because, for two years, folks had many fewer ways to spend their money. This pent-up demand is a major cause of demand-side inflation. Also, I agree whole-heartedly with the premise of the article, that is, inflation is baked into the public's thinking. Inflation will subside in the coming months and prices (generally) may come down a bit but will largely remain in today's ranges. The exception will be energy prices in the short term. In the long term energy supplies will normalize and prices will trend downward. Wages will soon approach equalization and life will go on much the same as it always has.

For folks such as most on this board inflation has little effect on our standard of living. Sure, the cost of diesel gives some pause but most of us just pay the price and keep on cruising just as we always have. Neither will a recession affect us much.
I took effort to just summarize the WSJ article factually. But while various government funded distributions undoubtedly affected the broader economy, for the typical trawler buyer, other factors likely eclipses the couple thousand bucks in recovery/stimulus payments. Recall discussions about "K Recovery" where lower half of earners were hit hard, upper half recovered immediately and went on a turbo-charged ride of asset appreciation. That trajectory has leveled off of course, but the effects on individual net worth for the upper half remain largely intact. Let's be realistic - many people in the TF class of life express a desire to sell their house to extract appreciation but are throttled due to having to live somewhere. Higher interest rates on second mortgages will adversely effect boat purchases. These are choices, not barriers. To many, these are "rich people problems."

I don't think the bottom will drop out of the boat market, but clearly the wind is shifting . People are still largely employed, wages are still strong. Until that changes, there will be buyers of recreational assets.

Peter
 
The pandemic-fueled effects on bank accounts to which Peter refers, the WSJ article anyway, has nothing to do with folks getting handouts. The savings rate increased substantially because, for two years, folks had many fewer ways to spend their money.

Everyone has an opinion but how can you say that with such certainty? I didn't even read the article, but that was my immediate conclusion. I don't disagree that many people spent less during the pandemic, but at that same time of less spending, many families received thousnads of dollars in free money. How can that not end up adding to their savings and/or spending? It had to go sommewhere.
 
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So long as a boat can qualify as a 'second home' and the interest is a write off.... I think the boat buyers will continue to buy primarily from the 'used' boat market because the 'wait time' will be considerable shorter. Some will buy a used boat and order a new boat with the intention to sell the used boat before or after taking possession of the new 'larger boat'. Or maybe elect to keep the used boat and forgo the new boat or sell the use boat and cancel the new boat.
Wanna see the bottom drop out of boating and housing market? Stop allowing the interest to be written off on "second homes". That was tried before with disastrous results, remember????
 
So long as a boat can qualify as a 'second home' and the interest is a write off.... I think the boat buyers will continue to buy primarily from the 'used' boat market because the 'wait time' will be considerable shorter. Some will buy a used boat and order a new boat with the intention to sell the used boat before or after taking possession of the new 'larger boat'. Or maybe elect to keep the used boat and forgo the new boat or sell the use boat and cancel the new boat.
Wanna see the bottom drop out of boating and housing market? Stop allowing the interest to be written off on "second homes". That was tried before with disastrous results, remember????

The new tax laws already make it more difficult to write off boat payments, depending on other deductions. I don't have a boat loan but even if I did, I wouldn't have enough deductions to breach the new standard deduction limit.
 
Everyone has an opinion but how can you say that with such certainty? I didn't even read the article, but that was my immediate conclusion. I don't disagree that many people spent less during the pandemic, but at that same time of less spending, many families received thousnads of dollars in free money. How can that not end up adding to their savings and/or spending? It had to go sommewhere.
Backinblue, I stated an opinion. Of course I cannot be certain. No one can.
 
So long as a boat can qualify as a 'second home' and the interest is a write off.... I think the boat buyers will continue to buy primarily from the 'used' boat market because the 'wait time' will be considerable shorter. Some will buy a used boat and order a new boat with the intention to sell the used boat before or after taking possession of the new 'larger boat'. Or maybe elect to keep the used boat and forgo the new boat or sell the use boat and cancel the new boat.
Wanna see the bottom drop out of boating and housing market? Stop allowing the interest to be written off on "second homes". That was tried before with disastrous results, remember????
The tax code subsidizes folks of means who have the capital and income to purchase second homes. I wonder how many in Congress have second homes.
 
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