Not looking good. Living in Florida you have to expect these but one could hope that the forecasters are wrong. Crap!
If you are in Jaxsonville, you have a lot less to worry about than those in the south west parts of Florida.......The storm will weaken considerably as it travels over land without the warm water to sustain it.......and 8 or 9 days out things can change drastically.
Spent the day taking down canvas, stowing deck chairs - all the fun stuff. If the current cone of uncertainty (remember agent 99?) holds true we will see a Cat 3 pass right over our marina Really surprised that I was about the only one doing boat preps there today - my guess is tomorrow will be different...
Preparing the best I can and hoping for the best. Admiral and I will watch it all on the news while in Atlanta. Just too old and grumpy to deal with this hurricane crap on-scene anymore
greetings,
yep. Don't look good.
The thing I hate about hurricane forecasts is the hope and prayer hand-wringing because it's a zero sum game. Right now, the "M" is right around Sarasota, which puts St Petersburg on the clean side, which is good for us, bad for Sarasota.
The models have a surprising amount of convergence right now.
Peter View attachment 132287
All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.With a Cat 4 it will be problematic no matter which side if its close enough and you are at or near the coast.
All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.
Latest NHC projection attached. Remarkably steady forecast.......for now
PeterView attachment 132299
I have wondered about wind-surge pushing up Tampa Bay. I was a presenter at a TrawlerFest in Solomons MD in the early 2000s. That year, a hurricane had swept up the Chesapeake a few weeks prior (Isabel?). The surge floated docks over their pilings, and when the water ran out, created an ultra-low tide. A lot of damage, just from the wind-pushed surge up the bay.If the present forecast track holds, the west coast of Florida from the Keys to around Bradenton is in for major punishment. But, if the eyewall drifts just 40 miles to the west of the forecast track, it will make landfall someplace north of Clearwater. In that case, Tampa Bay itself will finally experience its "perfect storm" scenario, with hurricane-force winds out of the southwest pushing water through the Bay entrance causing major flooding all the way up its rivers and estuaries. If it doesn't happen with Hurricane Ian, it will eventually - just a matter of time. I love the Tampa Bay area - lived there for 25 years - but its vulnerability to this particular hurricane orientation is scary.
My neighbor, who is older than Methuselah and has lived on the northern Gulf coast all his life, says that right now if he had a boat at Apalachicola or Carrabelle, that he would be very worried. He thinks the eye will come ashore over there, no matter what anyone else may think. Who knows? Not me.
My neighbor, who is older than Methuselah and has lived on the northern Gulf coast all his life, says that right now if he had a boat at Apalachicola or Carrabelle, that he would be very worried. He thinks the eye will come ashore over there, no matter what anyone else may think. Who knows? Not me.
I think he may be right...